Jealhimet Community


Jealhimet Community Forums
It is currently Sat Nov 18, 2017 7:20 am

All times are UTC [ DST ]





Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 95 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 7  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: DooooooOOOoooooom
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 5:02 pm 
Offline
Senior Spammer
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2005 1:00 am
Posts: 1867
Location: Thundercats
What was a month of hype during the release has turned into a month of doomcasting in the mmo blogosphere. In relation to SWTOR's likely level of success.
Personally I think this is just the way these things go. Everyone has an axe to grind.

However, this article I read goes a little beyond "haters gonna hate" and quotes fiscal analysis of EA shares and their 3% drop being caused by SWTOR release problems:

Quote:
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Electronic Arts Inc. fell nearly 3% to $17.75 on Thursday morning after an analyst with Brean Murray Carret & Co. cut his price target on the stock to $22 from $28, citing concerns about the recently released online multi-player game "Star Wars: The Old Republic." In a note to clients, analyst Todd Mitchell wrote that "creeping concerns" about the performance of "Star Wars" -- which was released in late December -- is causing him to trim his earnings estimates for the 2013 fiscal year. "Specifically, initial sales appear to be below expectations, and casual observation of early play is causing us to rethink our churn assumptions," Mitchell wrote


Is SWTOR underperforming?
Im sure this will be a controversial topic here, given the amount of people invested in it. But certainly the market brokers think so.

As to what exactly constitutes a success for SWTOR, only bioware can know. But it is certainly going to be a higher number of box sales and constant subs than most other MMOs. Just because of the project design costs. (Anywhere from 150 to 300 mill depending on source).

_________________
Image

Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm.
Winston Churchill


Top
 

 Post subject: Re: DooooooOOOoooooom
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 5:18 pm 
Offline
Spam Meister
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 1:32 am
Posts: 6298
Location: UK
sales appear to be below expectations?

Last i heard there was talk of 3 million units being sold, wonder what kind of figures people expected.

_________________
Image


Top
 

 Post subject: Re: DooooooOOOoooooom
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 5:23 pm 
Offline
Administrator
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 1:37 am
Posts: 5268
Location: Holland
Rem wrote:
Is SWTOR underperforming?
Im sure this will be a controversial topic here, given the amount of people invested in it. But certainly the market brokers think so.

There is not much to say about this until we get official data on how many people are actually subbed. That analyst based his "casual observations" (really?) on the Ilum rage (he released it the day after the rage) and initial sales seems to have been as expected by most accounts. Sales don't really matter though, only active subs count so I'm interested to know what the data on that is. They are probably looking to get at least a million subs to start and grow from there, which doesn't seem unachievable.

Last week they were number 11 globally with 70k weekly sales and 2 million in total.

_________________
Image


Top
 

 Post subject: Re: DooooooOOOoooooom
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 5:37 pm 
Offline
Senior Spammer
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2005 1:00 am
Posts: 1867
Location: Thundercats
Grim wrote:
Rem wrote:
Is SWTOR underperforming?
Im sure this will be a controversial topic here, given the amount of people invested in it. But certainly the market brokers think so.

There is not much to say about this until we get official data on how many people are actually subbed. That analyst based his "casual observations" (really?) on the Ilum rage (he released it the day after the rage) and initial sales seems to have been as expected by most accounts. Sales don't really matter though, only active subs count so I'm interested to know what the data on that is. They are probably looking to get at least a million subs to start and grow from there, which doesn't seem unachievable.


I agree, longterm subs are what will count. However, Zum, even box sales figures are not always a reliably reported metric. Often "units shipped" and "units sold to players" are interchangeable depending on which one makes the company look strongest.

I doubt we will get the actual real figures on either. With subs being much harder to guess at.
So really, guesswork is all anyone can go on. And perceived success/failure is almost as important as real profits when you have a floated company.

As an example, I think only Eve out of all MMOs produce their monthly retention reports for the public. Not even WOW does that.
And even Eve stopped reporting sub numbers when they took a sudden nosedive recently.

_________________
Image

Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm.
Winston Churchill


Top
 

 Post subject: Re: DooooooOOOoooooom
PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 1:36 am 
Offline
Administrator
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 1:37 am
Posts: 5268
Location: Holland
Aye, nobody likes to report bad news so if there is not a press release from EA within a month about sub numbers they probably didn't hit their target.

_________________
Image


Top
 

 Post subject: Re: DooooooOOOoooooom
PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 9:36 am 
Offline
Senior Spammer
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2005 1:00 am
Posts: 1867
Location: Thundercats
Another thing this has shown is how little room for innovation huge budget games allow developers.

This episode shows 3 points being knocked off the EA share price (MILLIONS of dollars) because a patch for SWTOR cocked up pvp for a day.
Imagine how much pressure the lead designers are under right now...

Is it any wonder SWTOR is a WOW clone with lightsabers and story?

I think anyone looking for innovation in games will have to look at the lower budget projects.

_________________
Image

Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm.
Winston Churchill


Top
 

 Post subject: Re: DooooooOOOoooooom
PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 10:29 am 
Offline
Senior Spammer
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2005 1:00 am
Posts: 1867
Location: Thundercats
Another interesting article on SWTOR and EA profitability.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/entertainmentnewsbuzz/2012/01/star-wars-old-republic-cost.html

According to this, 4 million active subs will be a big success.

_________________
Image

Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm.
Winston Churchill


Top
 

 Post subject: Re: DooooooOOOoooooom
PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 11:24 am 
Offline
Spam Meister
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 1:32 am
Posts: 6298
Location: UK
didn't they mention before release that 500k active subs would be a sustainable number and that 1 million subs would be profitable?

Sure i remember somethign along those lines from one of the shareholder meetings.

I've stopped looked at the general discussion section of the official forums, it's just depressing. So many people who complain about the lack of innovation or how similar it is to WoW. Even if this wasn't a big budget AAA mmo, it's still using one of the biggest IP's around so of course they were always going to play it safe.

Once they have a subscription base and have worked out bugs then they can start looking to innovate slowly through expansions.

_________________
Image


Top
 

 Post subject: Re: DooooooOOOoooooom
PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 11:38 am 
Offline
Administrator
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 1:37 am
Posts: 5268
Location: Holland
Rem wrote:
I think anyone looking for innovation in games will have to look at the lower budget projects.

There hasn't been any big innovation for a while, it's all small iterations on proven concepts. That's for games in general though, not just MMO's.

At the same time people should accept that MMO's as a genre have a default blueprint now. You could say Half-Life is a clone of (to reference the title of this thread) Doom with story, except nobody says that. There are some things in FPS games that will always stay the same since Doom if you want to be successful and the same can be said for MMO themepark games since WoW now.

_________________
Image


Top
 

 Post subject: Re: DooooooOOOoooooom
PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 11:58 am 
Offline
Senior Spammer
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2005 1:00 am
Posts: 1867
Location: Thundercats
Grim wrote:
Rem wrote:
I think anyone looking for innovation in games will have to look at the lower budget projects.

There hasn't been any big innovation for a while, it's all small iterations on proven concepts. That's for games in general though, not just MMO's.

At the same time people should accept that MMO's as a genre have a default blueprint now. You could say Half-Life is a clone of Doom with story, except nobody says that. There are some things in FPS games that will always stay the same since Doom if you want to be successful and the same can be said for MMO themepark games since WoW now.


You have struck on the main point of contention between the various factions right here.
Some argument can be made that WOW has set the blueprint for all MMOs, and any that dont stick to a WOWesque formula are going to be unsuccessful.
However there is the argument that WOW is not the endpoint blueprint for MMOs, and successful interation of alternative MMO models can be just as profitable.

I personally think the latter. I, for example, have always had much more fun and payed much more of my money in subs, in simulation/world/sandbox type games. For example UO, Eve, SWG, Vanguard etc.

And to cite previous release trends, copying WOW does not actually seem to lead to success. There have been dozens of WOW clones now, and none can really be said to have been successful. (Not including SWTOR as its too early to tell there).
(Rift came close but there have been a spate of server merges recently.)

As a note, you first wrote about all MMOs needing to be like WOW, then just MMO themeparks needing to be like WOW. So I am a bit confused as to where exactly you stand anyway. Could you clarify.

Also when talking about games in general, I still think there is great room for innovation. I would cite minecraft as an example of a recent truly innovative game. (Note that it was an indie developer, not big budget).

_________________
Image

Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm.
Winston Churchill


Top
 

 Post subject: Re: DooooooOOOoooooom
PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 12:26 pm 
Offline
Senior Spammer
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2005 1:00 am
Posts: 1867
Location: Thundercats
Zumbee wrote:
didn't they mention before release that 500k active subs would be a sustainable number and that 1 million subs would be profitable?

Sure i remember somethign along those lines from one of the shareholder meetings.

I've stopped looked at the general discussion section of the official forums, it's just depressing. So many people who complain about the lack of innovation or how similar it is to WoW. Even if this wasn't a big budget AAA mmo, it's still using one of the biggest IP's around so of course they were always going to play it safe.

Once they have a subscription base and have worked out bugs then they can start looking to innovate slowly through expansions.


Yeah I read those numbers too. I dont think "sustainable" is what the shareholders are after. My guess is 1 million subs for a year is the baseline of where they want to be. 4 million would be a big success story.
You have to have a certain level of profit to attract investment, otherwise shareholder money would have been better invested in banks.
"Sustainable" means financial failure in these terms. But it doesnt mean closure of the game.

Also I agree with your attitude to the forums. MMO forums seem to be just a place for trolls and whiners these days.

_________________
Image

Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm.
Winston Churchill


Top
 

 Post subject: Re: DooooooOOOoooooom
PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 12:30 pm 
Offline
Administrator
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 1:37 am
Posts: 5268
Location: Holland
Rem wrote:
As a note, you first wrote about all MMOs needing to be like WOW, then just MMO themeparks needing to be like WOW. So I am a bit confused as to where exactly you stand anyway. Could you clarify.

Yeah, I mean all themepark MMO's. Sandbox MMO's are a different beast all together and certainly a lot more could happen there but so far the market for them seems somewhat limited (but the same could be said of themepark MMO's before WoW).

I'm a fan of sandbox MMO's as probably most of us are but after SWG and to a lesser degree (for me) EVE there has yet to be an awesome game in this genre. Sandbox MMO's are hard to make, there is no real blueprint for it and there is no proven market, any developer going for this is taking a huge risk and no sane large company will take that risk right now. So, indie developers might well be where it's add but then it has to be radically different then what there is now because the costs to run an MMO alone (servers, support, bandwidth, etc) is not exactly indie friendly. I'm thinking stuff such as bittorrent like decentralized servers.

On themepark MMO's, I'm not saying you should blatantly copy every feature but there are a dozen staples of a themepark MMO that are just mandatory now. Like it or not, if you don't implement these you will get grief from the (vocal) majority of players for it and your game will be played less. That's just the reality of the market right now.

Quote:
Also when talking about games in general, I still think there is great room for innovation. I would cite minecraft as an example of a recent truly innovative game. (Note that it was an indie developer, not big budget).

True, sadly the big exception to the rule though. Who knows, a Minecraft MMO might be in the cards with the amount of cash Mojang is making.

_________________
Image


Top
 

 Post subject: Re: DooooooOOOoooooom
PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 7:47 pm 
Offline
Master Spammer
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Wed Sep 29, 2004 12:14 am
Posts: 2149
Grim wrote:
True, sadly the big exception to the rule though. Who knows, a Minecraft MMO might be in the cards with the amount of cash Mojang is making.


That'd be amusing, the amount of grief I have to deal with on my server of friends playing together when someone built where they shouldnt have etc. Imagine the griefing if an anonymous MMO crowd were on a world building together!

On the subject of indie MMOs I've been thinking a fair bit recently about how stale MMOs have gotten (a topic I might post at length on at some point for anyone who cares), and have been thinking how interesting an open source / community MMO would be, set up a simple engine, basic set of ideas and overyling story for the game and then let people submit changes that would roll out to everyone if they were accepted. Anyone with some coding ability could add a new feature or fix a bug, and all the whiners could shut up when they realise it's not all that easy to code an MMO :lol:


Top
 

 Post subject: Re: DooooooOOOoooooom
PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 8:25 pm 
Offline
Spam Meister
User avatar
 WWW  Profile

Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2004 9:59 pm
Posts: 2629
Location: Watching lozanges of vortisticial light form beautifull butterfly patterns... I'M FREE!!!
I still like my Dalek War idea... half themepark, half sandbox, half pvp.... shifting frontiers...... <sigh>

_________________
You Have Been Watching...

Mac




Image


Top
 

 Post subject: Re: DooooooOOOoooooom
PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 8:33 pm 
Offline
Master Spammer
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Wed Sep 29, 2004 12:14 am
Posts: 2149
macfadyan wrote:
I still like my Dalek War idea... half themepark, half sandbox, half pvp.... shifting frontiers...... <sigh>


I'd play a Who MMO, would have some nice variety of locations, time periods, could be good fun I'd imagine.


Top
 

Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 95 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 7  Next

All times are UTC [ DST ]



Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
cron
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group  
Design By Poker Bandits     
Updated By Kieron Thwaites (Ron2K)